Horse racing betting

I might be a little new to handicapping but I was looking at the first race at Aquaduct. I noticed that in the stats for the horses, none came close to Sheza Heartbreaker. He was ridden by Curotolo twice and produced a beyer 83 and 79. He was subsequently ridden by Ortiz and produced a beyer 49 and others rarely produced above 70 giving the impression that the jockey was the key to the horses performance. Curotolo was riding him yesterday and placed 3rd being beaten by Much Fanfare who typically had worse times. Fortunately I did not bet it because I suspected something wrong. It was too easy to conclude Sheza H would win which he did not. (In all cases I considered the track conditions were fast)

This is why they call it gambling. Ask yourself a few questions before assuming the worse. Was Curotolo riding the day Ortiz was on the horse? If so, maybe Curotolo knew the horse couldn’t handle the competition and took off the horse. Maybe the owner or trainer wanted to make a change. You only toss numbers around – what were the conditions of the races and the distances? People who live by the “numbers” die by the “numbers”. Trust me if they were fool proof Andy wouldn’t be the hustling degenerate gambler he is. Not to mention the “bounce” factor – horses generally do not run three good races in a row. And as a well know agent once said to Mack Miller – “Time only counts when you’re doing it”.

There could be multiple things a bettor cannot predict or even aware of that can happen on the race track with any give race, we can speculate but never be certain of any criminal activity if any…with that, my answer is this, as I’ve said before in similar past questions- Fixing a race or races is highly unlikely and to mention a very very series crime. And the truth is that a horse race would be more difficult to fix more than just about any other activity on which money is bet. To cheat or fix a horse race so that a result of a certain order could be achieved, a criminal would probably need to get seven or eight jockeys and five or six trainers to put together a game plan, which is highly unlikely. And, the fact is many who have thought of or even tried to arrange fix races have lived to regret it.

I see it as impossible to rig races. In stake races and horse racing in general, it’s every man for them-self, so to speak. Usually the losers are always the complainers, they bet more than they can afford and lash out… otherwise if winning this question would never be..lol… I feel it best to walk away from the sport rather than stab the sport, because there’s “no” guarantee for anyone, to continue betting on horses you must accept there’s no guarantee, take your chances, don’t bet every race, and certainly don’t bet more than you can afford, and be sure to double check your picks for accuracy. To many variables otherwise..

If I bet $20 to SHOW and it pays $2.2, would I get $40?

stop gambling…. you’ll ruin your life….

A $20.00 ticket will pay $22.00 at that rate. To be extra clear, that means you only profited $2.00.

The payout is always based on a 2-dollar ticket. In this example, a 2-dollar ticket pays out $2.20. (A 20-cent profit.)

***EDIT***

Teehan Western is wrong. I, (and LegFuJohnson), am right.

$44 20 x 2.2

No, you wouldn’t get $40, unless the guy at the window didn’t know what he was doing.

You’d get $22 back. Big $2 win, don’t spend it all in one place.

There will be no more sport betting resurrections of Patrick Valenzuela’s career as he decided to hang up the racing boots in a career that spanned 33 years and for all the problems he has had, the fans and some online sports betting enthusiasts loved this guy, can learn from his career and will miss him the most.

Near constant pain in his knees and a recent gall bladder operation were the straws that broke P Val’s back and just like any superior athlete and even at 49, retirement will not be an easy pill for him to swallow.

Sunday Silence was his break out horse as he won two thirds of the Triple Crown with the Charlie Whittingham trainee. He also won 7 Breeders’ Cup races including the visually amazing score in 1991 by Arazi in the Juvenile.

The maligned rider has been suspended more often then some people change their socks. He out distanced former Los Angeles Dodgers pitched Steve Howe in days lost by suspension by the length of the stretch. But no matter how many things went wrong, no matter how many drug tests he failed, no matter how many days he just didn’t show up, he was embraced by owners, trainers and sports betting websites fans alike when he did get back into action.

He continually had a smile on his face, would often win with his first mount back and even at his advance age, was still a top-10 rider in one of the toughest jockey colonies in the world.

Many in the game will sit down and tell you that he had the ability to be one of the best ever. And that is beyond The Shoe, and the Pirate, Laffit Pincay, Jr. and some of the other greats.

Horses just ran for him. The same way they did for Kenny Black before that rider had his own personal demons jump up and get him.

Patrick would put horses where they belong and he always seems to coax just a little more from them down the lane. It is kind of like a nuclear power war. If you don’t use him as a trainer, the other guys at the barns will and they just might have the deciding edge. If you do use him, you will be advising your owners that this is the guy to take them and their stock to the promised land if he can show up to work.

As a sportsbooks handicapper, you had to factor him into the pace game plan more than any other rider probably in history. If a bettor was looking to take a swing on a runner that appeared to be the lone speed, but P Val was on another horse, he could change the complexion of the race just by allowing his mount to gun early and therefore hurt the chances of the apparent lone speed.

The final stats will read 4,333 races won and money earned by his mounts of nearly $164 million but they don’t come close to telling the true saga of one of the most talented chauffeurs in the history of the sport.

Who: Thoroughbreds – Pomeroys Pistol, Third Chance, Populist Politics, Star Guitar, Weemissfrankie, Charm the Maker
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Sugar Swirl, The Louisiana Champions Day Classic, The Hollywood Starlet
Where: Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, Hollywood Park
When: Saturday, December 10th

Can the red-hot Third Chance knock off Pomeroys Pistol in The Sugar Swirl (Grade 3) at Gulfstream Park? Can up-and-coming 3YO Populist Politics defeat Louisiana-bred kingpin Star Guitar in The Louisiana Champions Day Classic at Fair Grounds? Can the regally-bred Charm the Maker turn the tables on Weemissfrankie in The Hollywood Starlet (Grade 1) at Hollywood Park? Let’s take a closer look at these intriguing matchups.

In The Sugar Swirl, earnings leader Pomeroys Pistol ($510,178) figures to go favored. She rarely runs a bad one, and exits a solid fourth-place effort in The Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. She’s also proven at Gulfstream Park, with a record of 3-1-1-1 in a trio of graded stakes early in the year. However, her lifetime-best Beyer Speed Figure of 98 is just a point better than that of the red-hot Third Chance (97), who’s on a four-race win streak (by a combined 29 lengths). True, the Hawthorne-to-Gulfstream move didn’t work for this filly in January, but she’s a much-improved horse since then. I like her outside post as well…it gives regular rider Jozbin Santana some options. Note that the trainer/jockey combo is winning at an astonishing 40% clip, with an ROI of $2.69 (for each $2.00 bet). I’ll bet on the hot horse/connections to win at odds of 5-2 or better.

Populist Politics is a very nice 3YO. He made a big move before fading late to finish third in the Grade 2 Super Derby, and demolished older La-breds last out in The Mr. Sulu Stakes locally. His career-best Beyer (94) is just two points shy of Star Guitar’s top 2011 fig (96). That bullet breeze (:47 4/5…fastest of 79 at the distance) a week ago wasn’t too shabby either. Still, in Star Guitar, you’re dealing with one of the all-time great La-breds. He’s won 20-of-26 lifetime, for earnings of more than $1.4 MM, and he’s 8-of-10 lifetime at Fair Grounds. Defending champ Star Guitar is following the same schedule as last year, but note that he enters this affair in even better form, shooting for his 7th straight authoritative win. I’ll bet a straight 6-4 exacta…#6-Star Guitar over #4-Populist Politics.

Weemissfrankie had plenty of support in The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, finishing third in a 14-horse field at odds of 5-1. Prior to her trip east, she defeated Charm the Maker by a length in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita. However, I’m leaning toward the beautifully-bred Charm the Maker to turn the tables on her main rival. Weemissfrankie had an experience edge in The Oak Leaf, having already won a Grade 1, while Charm the Maker was exiting a debut maiden score. This time, Charm the Maker owns a two-turn stakes win over the track, while Weemissfrankie is making her Hollywood Park bow after a potentially draining trip to Churchill Downs. Charm the Maker’s got a bit more tactical speed as well, so she should get the jump on ‘Frankie. I’ll bet on Charm the Maker to win at odds of 3-2 or better.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

Who: Thoroughbreds – Francesco Rules
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The $75,000 Pennsylvania
Where: Parx Racing
When: Saturday, December 10th

Sometimes to sharpen skills, online wagering sports players need to look outside the box and that brings us to the 7-furlong Pennsylvania Nursery for state-bred 2-year-olds in the City of Brotherly Love.

The Parx Racing feature on Saturday offers a $75,000 purse and 9 will face the starters.

From the rail out, Francesco Rules has never run a bad race. He has proven he can be placed anywhere and still perform, has a right to have a solid career as kin to 7-time winner and near $225,000 earner Wild Cat Mesa and he was flattered when the horse that beat him two races back won a $75,000 stakes next out by 6 lengths as the prohibitive chalk.

Noifswhatsorbuts is the more powerful half of the Randy Allen entry and he looked good winning in the slop last time. The bad news is that he was just boosting the rail runner, who beat him easily in the November debut.

Traffic Light started his career in fine fashion but regressed badly in last on a strip he may not have cared for very much. Connections have high expectations for this guy since he is a half brother to Grade 2 winner and over $450,000 earner Simply Splendid.

Legendofsparticus shocked at 18-1 in the sports betting debut but regressed badly at Laurel, then ran around the track when whipped by the rail rival.

Bellamy Express had legit trouble in his debut when stumbling at the break but stretched out successfully when he controlled the pace setting very moderate splits at a mile. He’s looking at much more speed here and will likely be a late factor if at all.

Quotable is a grinder. His only sportsbooks win came at an abbreviated distance and he has been handled by a number of today’s rivals.

Ill Conceived added Lasix last time to no avail, now gets blinkers and could be more on the muscle. Could envision a trip where he will sit 5 or 6 lengths off the pace hoping the race falls apart.

Runnin Bull is in a slump. He was taxed graduating in July and has not won since. Out of the money the other time at this distance, this guy has a lot of work to do to match top kin Showmeitall, who won a Grade 2 on way to over $300,000 career.

Drawn outside is Pollard’s Boy, a double winner at Penn National. His connections thought enough of him to try a stakes at Aqueduct last time when wide every step.

Look for it to unfold like this: Traffic Light will be sent hard trying to steal the race but the two inside horses Francesco Rules and Noifswhatsorbuts will be in full pursuit.

The rest of the field will be in the next flight and will likely lose contact.

At the top of the lane, Traffic Light sees red and stops while Francesco Rules gets the ideal 3-hole trip and nails Noifswhatsorbuts at the wire.

Take 5-2 or more with Francesco Rules and good luck.

Tampa Bay Downs, which kicked off Saturday for its 86th season, was a long-time haunt of New York Yankee Boss George Steinbrenner and is a hidden online best sportsbook gem in the early portion of the racing year. Bettors will be much better off in the long run if they pay attention to this meet and to the shippers that will go elsewhere when the meet ends in May.

The Tampa form seems to hold up better every year and although it doesn’t have the glitter and glory of Gulfstream Park there are some good riders and some very good trainers that ply their trade there.

The highlight of the sport betting meeting will be the Grade 2 $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby on March 10 but there are some other serious stakes there that sophomores can build momentum toward the spring classics.

The riding title should be up for grabs since Daniel Centeno, who was second in the standings last year mainly due to being injured, will move his tack to Gulfstream.

Ronnie Allen Jr. will try to defend his status and win a consecutive Tampa title. One rider to look out for is Mark Guidry, who has been around forever and should find his way into some veteran stables.

When scrutinizing turf races, know that Leandro Goncalves was second to Allen in most turf wins despite getting 23 fewer chances.

Daniel Coa also had a great season on the grass course, as did the Rosemary Homeister

A trainer to watch with comebackers this meet is Gerald Bennett. He is great with horses that need some tender loving care. The Canadian native has been a fixture in the Michigan racing scene for what seems life forever but is best known for his work with Beau Genius. A few seasons ago he planned and orchestrated that runner’s 13 stakes winning career which including Grade 1 scores in Jersey in the Haskell and Phil Iselin.

Bennett had a sensational Tampa meet last year tying for the title with Jamie Ness, who despite sending out 58 fewer starters, still matched Bennett’s win total of 61, according to sports betting websites.

There was quality in small numbers for Jorge Navarro last season as he won with 23% of his starters. The very patient Ian Wilkes had a solid stand with 13 happy endings from 52 runners but Lonnie Arturburn did him a bit better popping with 11 of his 40 steeds.

One of my favorite trainers in the country has called Tampa his winter home since the 2001 season and when bettors see runners mentored by Tom Proctor, they had better pay attention.

Tom learned from his pops, the legendary Willard, who is one of the most respected trainers in California history.

The younger Proctor broke into the Tampa scene and promptly hit at a 60% win clip going 15 for 25. He proved that number was no fluke but following up with seasons of 32%, 36% and last year 37%.

Last year, Proctor only sent out 77 starters but 15 came back to the winner’s circle and another 17 ran in the money.

The best thing about Proctor is he is dangerous at a price and he has been known to saunter to the betting windows.

So, when things get boring for online sports players in New York, or at Gulfstream, or even at Santa Anita, take a glance at the Tampa Bay action and get in on the value.

My good friend Jen is making her maiden voyage to Gulfstream Park on Saturday, so I thought I’d send her my top selection for each of the ten races. Jen, I recommend you bet each selection across the board (win, place and show) for whatever amount you’re comfortable with…and most importantly…enjoy your day at the races!

Race 1: #8-Kidstrong Fever (2-1)…Jockey Luis Saez is one of the top young riders in the sport, and he’s won with 6-of-13 mounts in 2010-11 for trainer Gilberto Zerpa. Kidstrong Fever could lead this field on a merry chase.

Race 2: #7-Playing a Joke (6-1)…No joke…bet the gray. He likes the track and distance (one mile), and the trainer/jockey combo is clicking at a win rate of 31%, with an ROI of $2.45 (for every $2.00 bet).

Race 3: #3-Discreet Dancer (5-2)…Another in a long list of talented two-year-olds for trainer Todd Pletcher. This colt is training forwardly for his career debut.

Race 4: #8-Bunny Valentine (6-1)…’Bunny probably need her last start, which was her first on the lawn and first going two turns. The drop back to the claiming ranks should help too. Note this trainer/jockey combo has rung the bell with an amazing 10-of-22 starters in 2010-11, with a juicy ROI of $3.49.
Race 5: #10-Lakeside Chapel (3-1)…Sure, she’s switching from turf routes to a dirt sprint, but this bunch is by far the easiest she’s faced in her career. Note she ran second in her only dirt start, and she’s had a couple of spins over this track in the a.m.

Race 6: #3-White Hill (4-1)…Well-bred gray finished a bang-up second in his career bow on the Monmouth Park main track, and should handle the switch to turf.

Race 7: #1-Nachas and Joy (5-1)…This youngster has been well-backed on the Chicago circuit. There’s enough speed in this heat to set up his closing kick.

Race 8: #1-Shakeira (5-2)…Filly has fired in every start since her career debut, and broke her maiden going two turns on this course.

Race 9: #7-Ancient Rome (4-1)…Dutrow trainee broke his maiden in style last out, and looks like the lone speed.

Race 10: #11-Volcano Run (3-1)…Don’t hold his latest dirt flop against him…this guy does his best running on the sod.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

Do you know that $1,000 superfecta box on 9 horses is $1,800,000.00? Did you also know that most of the stakes races finish in a $3,000.00 or more superfecta for a $2,00 bet? Box all the horses in a $1,000.00 superfecta in 2006 for The Kentucky probably would cost a couple of million but the superfecta paid out something like $20,000.000 on a $2.00 bet. A bank would never approve a $3 million loan to box a superfecta at a stakes race even though it would mathematically work out. I’m guessing this is the way a drug lord bets at a horsebook in Tijuana. Probably wins money too.

Your argument just doesn’t hold water.

You point out ONE race in 2006. Why not point out ALL the races that are run every day? Why not box ALL of them for $2 on every horse?

I’ll tell you why not – because you’d lose so much money that you could sink a medium-sized country.

Yes, WHEN the long-shots come in, it would work. You don’t have a crystal ball to let you know when that would happen though.

I know why a poor man doesn’t win a the track. It’s because the track only has an 80% payback rate. Tracks take 20% right off the top. In other words, for every $100,000 that is wagered on any given race, only $80,000 is put into the prize pool. A 20% take on the money is nearly impossible to beat.

Other than being totally incorrect, what was your question?

The first sport betting month of the racing season is on the cold and chilly side as the New York hardcore that aren’t rooting for the Giants or the Jets watch Aqueduct runners on the inner strip but one of the premier meets in the world, Gulfstream Park will steal most of the headlines starting on December 3.

Slots were okayed in Broward County just a few years ago at 4 pari-mutuel outlets including Gulfstream and Pompano Park as the new option to racing changes the balance of power.

Gulfstream, which opened in 1872, is the third-oldest racing facility in the country but the track and with this tradition comes great anticipation.

The Donn Handicap, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby highlight the meeting along with the Sunshine Millions.

Since he owns both Gulfstream and Santa Anita, Frank Stronach came up with the unique idea of pitting California breds against Florida breds in the Millions and it will be run on January 28. Nearly $4 million will be on the line.

Four of the online wagering high-octane races will be run in California and the other 4 at Gulfstream and since both now boast conventional main track surfaces, the playing field should be a bit easier to decipher.

As far as the chauffeurs are concerned, Paco Lopez will be attempting to win his third straight Gulfstream riding title. Only one other rider was able to win three consecutive titles and that was Jorge Chavez over 10 years ago.

A final note on what to expect as far as where the winners will come from early in the year in Florida. All bettors have to be careful when meetings switch to not bet on previous meeting’s form.

Four runners were unbeaten at Gulf during the last meet. They were S.S. Stone, It’s Never Too Late, Don Misil and Stratford Hill and if any of them return this season, any of these runners are an automatic bet no matter where they are placed.

It takes a special sportsbooks knack to ride turf combining patience and nerves of steel but guys like Joe Bravo, third in turf wins last year Manoel Cruz had good success on the greenery last season.

The way some stables are configured, turf racing sometimes because a potent force and there are some clever turf oriented barns in Florida this season.

Chad Brown had the most wins on the grass and Slick Nick Canani won with 12 of his 34 turf starters. Lisa Lewis only saddled 15 to race on grass and 4 came back with happy endings. Little known trainers like John Mazza, Jane Cibelli, Allan Hunter and Stan Hough saddled 17 turf starters combined and 8 of them had their picture taken in the charmed circle.

At Gulfstream this season early in the meet, don’t bet Calder form unless you are getting a price. On some opening days in the past, Calder-based winners were few and far between but winners did come from outposts like Jersey, New York twice, Boston, Tampa and Churchill.

Enjoy the sunshine, hunt prices and good luck.

This is the time of the year for reflection, redemption, promises of the future and doing good for others and sports betting online horse bettors eyeing New York action could do much worse than to try to get a little Christmas cash during the inner strip days at Aqueduct.

There is no turf racing at Aqueduct at this time of the year and the inner strip will be utilized until about the third week of March depending on how the weather is shaping up.

Because the more potent stables already have shipped or are in the process of moving their stables to Florida where more money and abundant sunshine are the order of the day, the smaller barns have a chance to make hay while the big barns are away.

What players should look for during this time is try to isolate horses that have done well over this tricky surface in the past.

Inside speed can be extremely potent especially if the other legit contenders are hung out in wide posts.

It is possible to come from off the pace and thrive but just like with any race shape, handicappers have to project a number of contenders that will vie for the lead.

As far as the online sports book human element is concerned, if Ramon Dominguez stays north, like he did last year, he will likely win the riding title.

Last year he was absolutely dominant. Dominquez popped with nearly 31% of his starters crushing his rivals in the process.

One rider to really pay attention to is budding superstar Anna Napravnik, who showed last year winning with over 12% of her mounts that she has a solid knack for this abbreviated surface.

New Jersey stalwart Chuck Lopez rides the inner strip as well as anybody. He is an aggressive pilot so his horses will most often than not be in the right position to take advantage at the top of the lane.

David Cohen, who broke his teeth on the West Coast, had a break out meet during the inner strip meeting last year while Victor Santiago won with 12 of his first 74 mounts with 19 others in the money.

Those that pull the online wagering strings, the trainers, will be well represented by guys like David Jacobson, who is very good with horses stretching out from a sprint to a route and figures to pop with about 20% of his starters.

Anthony Dutrow will likely keep a small string in New York with his more talented runners heading to the sunshine state.

He is absolutely sensational with second time starters and when he claims a runner, he usually greets that horse in the winner’s circle nearly a third of the time in the first start for Dutrow.

Richard Violette Jr. will not send out a lot of horses, but online players have to watch every single starter.

Violette has a penchant for giving a horse a race when routing, then firing big time in the next start especially when shortening up to a sprint. He doesn’t claim a lot of horses, but when he does it can speak volumes.

Lastly, players really can’t get greedy during this meet because form is quickly established. The most astute of the crowd will pay attention to way a horse was hung wide in his prior start, but now gets a favorite pace and a much better post.

Look to this winter meet as a groundbreaking start to what hopefully will be a super 2012 season.

Good luck.