Okay, Im not serious about it, just fooling around with a spreadsheet and some older Preakness and Derby results.
Basiclly what I did was make a spread sheet that has you type in the win odds for every horse and then that tells how much of a bet I need to make on that horse to make a goal I set formyself.
Say I want to leave the races with 5000 In my pocket.
I just find the amount I need to bet on each horse to have in the case of that horse winning me collect my $5000 goal. So
for a horse thats 10-1 I would have to bet $500 to make my goal of 5000 (Actually that would give me 5500 but I’m still trying to figure out how to factor that into the excel sheet)
Anyway, what I’ve figured out is that I just knock out the top 1 or 2 favored horses and that decreses the total investment I put in to be under my goal of 5000.
I know that if those top 2 favored horeses win I’m screwed, I’m not saying its a perfect system.
Basically, bet on every horse except for the top 2 favorites, and bet in scale so that every horse gives an equal payoff that will be above the total amount invested.
For example, I ran this with the 2011 kentucky derby and I made a profit of 11% on a 70% chance of victory.
(I reversed the odds to see what the % chance a horse would win the race would be and then factored that in to find the risk that one of the horses I didn’t bet on would win)
Over the long term, you will lose because the payoffs won’t equal the amount of money you need to invest. You didn’t state what type of bet you would be placing, but I’m assuming you’re betting to win. that means, you are spreading your cash over the entire field in hopes of getting one winner. If that winner is a huge longshot, you might be in the clear.
The Triple Crown races are unlike the majority of day to day races due to the huge fields and mostly, closely matched horses. The average race consists of 6 -8 contestants. If you have a six horse field most of your odds will be quite short, necessitating in your having to lay out more money to recoup your investment.
Additionally, due to OTB and internet wagering, you won’t know the pools and true odds until after the horses have started the race.
I suggest honing your handicapping skills then looking for logical longshots racing against vulnerable favorites, especially on off tracks or turf races switched to the dirt. That’s where you’ll find most of your longshot winners.
Either way, good luck with your system.
Nationally favorites win 30% of the time. So 3-4 out of you 10 races you will lose.(If your leaving the second choice out to) If your going to cover all the 8-10 to 1 shots in a given race.. That would be around 2500 bucks in a 8-12 horse field.
So one of your picks would have to win every other race to break even..
Like said before.. Hone your handicapping skills.. Does not cost anything to play on paper..
That’s how I started.. Took yesterdays form.. Marked the money runners .. And studied the heck out of it.. Then Got the active form and played “On Paper” Have some fun with it.
I found reading your system very interesting, and it could be as good as any if your willing to try it, giving it the test of time.. some even have thrown darts at the form to see what horse or horses to bet on, or they like the name or number..sounds craZy..well, ya never know right..lol. Well, as a handicapper for many years, I think there’s a better way. They are endless systems out there,however, I have found no magic systems or formulas I promise you. Understanding race horse handicapping is a must and that’s knowing how to read a horse racing form. Handicapping is a skill in which one gets better with time, and with time your skill will still continue to grow. I’ve been handicapping for years and still find new angles. When making picks, I first handicap the race, I look at each horse’s performance under prior racing conditions that most matches the conditions of the track and race that day. This information is usually in the program. The Daily Racing Form (DRF) is a great source on-line and is usually on sale at the track, this form is designed to provide all of the past performance information, as well as articles, analysis, and handicapper picks and tips. Keep in mind, The Daily Racing Form has an incredible amount of information entered into a small space, so abbreviations are used, and columns are used. It’s not as confusing as you would think. Once you’re familiar with reading the Information properly, it becomes very easy. The bottom line is to seek for clues to predict the winner of the race. Most importantly, handicapping is taking all of the available information, combining it all, and analyzing the horses. The more information you utilize in your picks, over time you will better your chances of having winning tickets. It is, of course, NOT guaranteed that you’ll always have the winner, you’re dealing only with probabilities and possibilities, because Horse Racing is very unpredictable, anything can happen at any time and it usually does, so if anyone promises a guaranteed pick, don’t ever believe it, for it’s impossible. I enjoy horse racing, however, I only bet on certain races, mostly the High Stake Races. I do it for fun, and manage my money wisely. I’m very active in helping race horses, trainers and owner, and the Industry, so it’s more than a betting game to me. I love it, and I’m not in it for the gamble. Always remember there is NO Guarantee in anything ! The odds on a horse are a good indicator of where the horse is expected to finish (a horse with 2/1 odds has a better chance of winning than a 30/1 horse, but the 30/1 horse is a much better payout, however, if you want to play it safe, look for a horse with at least 3/1 odds). Other factors to take into consideration: When did the horse run its last race? Experts say you want your horse to have run a race within the last 28 days to be sure it’s in good shape. How many horses are competing? Obviously, it’s a lot harder to pick a winner when there are a lot of contestants in the race. What does it say on the horses form? If there is a C, the horse has won on that track before. If there is a D, the horse has won on that distance before. These are both good bets. These are some tips, however, there’s a whole lot more to handicapping, and it’s a skill that takes time and the learning never ends. If you know which horses have the best chance of winning and which horses have no chance of winning, you are armed with a huge advantage. And you can put that advantage to good use in just about every race on the card on days you’re at the track. So, when you only have to concentrate on four horses, you have a great chance of picking a winner, with that a wonderful chance of betting on an exacta, a trifecta or even a superfecta. And with the odds in your favor, chances are you’ll be winning and cashing in more big bets than you lose. Whatever system you choose I wish you the best of luck..Have Fun 
If you bet with that system, you will surely be walking around a poor man guaranteed….
…Billy Ray
