The highly hospitable offer was made before Sunday’s final round, mind you, so the innkeeper might change her mind, depending on how things play out.

Ernie Els has played the role of mentor to young Charl Schwartzel. (Getty Images) All last week, rising European Tour star Charl Schwartzel stayed at the abode of countryman Ernie Els, located just up the interstate in Jupiter, using the time to hone his game before this week’s big-money CA Championship at the Doral Golf Resort & Spa.

The plan is for Schwartzel and his fiancee, Rosalyn, to crash next week at the Els domicile, too, before they both play in the Arnold Palmer Invitational the following week in Orlando.

“As long as he keeps making us biscuits for breakfast,” Liezl Els said Saturday, “he can stay.”

Although if Schwartzel knocks off her husband in Sunday’s final round, that general notion might go down as well as burned eggs and a cold cup of coffee. The familiar, friendly duo will be paired in the final round with $1.4 million on the line, pitting not only the homeowner and the houseguest, but master and apprentice.

Seeking only his second PGA Tour victory since 2004, Els shot 70 on Saturday and shares the lead at 12-under with Schwartzel, the wiry fellow South African who occasionally played in Els’ junior golf foundation events as a kid.

The good news is that Schwartzel can clearly afford a hotel if Els kicks him out.

“We’ll have to see how it goes tomorrow,” Els said. “He might be sleeping in the garden.”

He’s earned his keep so far. Schwartzel, a five-time winner on the E-Tour, last week baked the Els family some tasty biscotti-style treats to dunk in their coffee at breakfast. As for background, Els has known the Schwartzel family since Charl was barely old enough to hoist a mug to his own lips.

In fact, Charl’s dad, George, teamed with Els to win a better-ball tournament in South Africa in 1987, when Schwartzel was all of 2.

“He was, like, my hero,” Schwartzel said.

The familiarity hardly ends there, either. They share the same manager and Els’ longtime caddie, Ricci Roberts, spent the 2007 sea with whom Roberts has logged were taking a break.

“As I have said to everybody, he is the full package,” Roberts said of Schwartzel. “Now it’s time for him to move to the next stage.” Schwartzel seems ready to crash the next threshold, to be sure. He won the first two European Tour events of 2010 at the African and Joburg opens and was ninth at the star-laden Accenture Match Play Championship last month. At No. 35 in the world ranking at age 25, this week already marks the fourth time he has played in this particular WGC event, though he has never finished in the top 15. He has never finished better than T22 in a major championship, where he has missed seven of 12 cuts.

That’s largely why his manager, Chubby Chandler, gave him a pep talk before this week.

“This is your progression,” Chandler said, his way of telling Schwartzel it was time to ramp it up in the bigger events. “For a player as good as him, that [record in majors] is not right.”

Talk about a quandary. Chandler, Els’ agent for several years, had a feeling that Schwartzel was ready to make some noise and placed a wager overseas to that effect before the week. He got 80-to-1 odds on an “each-way” wager on Schwartzel, which means he’s in for a tidy payday as long as Charl finishes in the top five. Chandler wouldn’t say how much he put down, exactly.

“Quite a bit,” he said.

When a man who is accurately nicknamed Chubby has a gut instinct, it’s best to go with the flow.

“I definitely sensed that he was somebody different [this week],” Chandler said.

Some of that is attributable to the hospitality of Els. Schwartzel used his week in Jupiter to twice play the famed Seminole Golf Club, and he practiced at the prestigious Bear’s Club, the home-course hangout of none other than Jack Nicklaus. Early in the week, Schwartzel, who doesn’t have any status on the U.S. tour, tried to Monday-qualify for the Honda Classic, but didn’t make it. He spent nine days at the Els abode before they both set up shop at the Doral Resort this week.

Els compared Schwartzel’s career path to that of countryman Trevor Immelman, a former Masters winner and another player who fashioned his career after that of Els, a three-time major winner who has known both of them since they were mere pups.

“But he’s even more impressive because he’s longer, he hits the ball a really long way,” Els said this week of Schwartzel. “He’s just got so much talent. When he gets a break out here, you’re going to see the next superstar out of South Africa, basically.”

Maybe for Schwartzel, thanks to proximity alone, the star power will rub off.

Ernie Els must be a tad superstitious.

Even that might be a slight stretch, but suffice to say that he is a creature of habit and isn’t one to needlessly mess with what doesn’t need fixing.

This week’s CA Championship presents multiple cases in point.

For one, Els always stays in the same hotel room at the Doral Golf Resort & Spa, a place where, in 2002, he held off a spirited rally from Tiger Woods to win the title. After the first round this year, Els enjoyed a fine meal at a local eatery and said Friday he might head back for seconds.

“Oh yeah,” Els laughed. “Good wine, good steak, that’s how we oil it.”

After a brief detour last week, his swing again looks as lubed as ever, too.

The 40-year-old shot a 6-under 66 in the second round on the Blue Monster to claim a one-shot lead over Robert Allenby, marking the third time in six seasons that the Big Easy has held the 36-hole lead in a PGA Tour event.

Then again, Els has only won one tournament in the States in that span, which is why he’s been busting his backside lately trying to recapture the form that made him one of the most formidable players of the past two decades.

Playing near his Jupiter home, Ernie Els has a 36-hole lead on the PGA Tour for only the third time in six years. (AP) Els’ agent, Chubby Chandler, said he’d never seen any of the players in his stable work harder than has Els over the past few months as the former world No. 1 tries to stay relevant in the meaningful events. The past five days were a succinct synopsis.

After a sloppy T67 finish last week at the Honda Classic, where he won his last PGA Tour event in 2008, Els realized that he had placed the ball a fraction too far forward in his stance. Monday, he played in a member-guest event at storied Seminole Golf Club, then adjourned to the Bear’s Club, the Jack Nicklaus-designed course near Els’ home in Jupiter, to hit more balls.

Tuesday morning, he was back at the Bear’s Club for more work, then drove 90 minutes to Doral, where he and longtime sidekick and caddie Ricci Roberts hit balls for two hours, then played nine holes. They were at the course until close to 7 p.m.

“Oh yeah, he’s grinding,” Roberts said. Els and by the way, before he played the first round, he was spotted in the Doral gym working out.

“I feel like I’m close and I don’t want to let it go,” he said.

He was within reach of glory at a couple of majors last year, finishing T8 at the British Open and T6 at the PGA Championship a month later. The 2010 major sites already have him salivating.

He finished second at Pebble Beach the last time it hosted the U.S. Open in 2000, has twice finished second at the Dunhill Links European Tour at British Open site St. Andrews, and in the lone instance Whistling Straits hosted the PGA six years ago, Els three-jacked the last green to miss a three-man playoff by one stroke.

“Even though I haven’t been totally on the form I want to be, I’ve kind of had some good finishes in majors for some reason the last couple of years,” he said. “I’ve actually had a couple of chances. But yeah, it gives you a bit of hope.

“For some reason, I feel really good mentally this year. I feel a little bit more fresh than I have been. I feel like, you know, I’m up for it a little bit more this year, I’m a bit more excited about my whole game. My putting is coming around, my short game is coming around, so I’ve got a lot more hope than I’ve had maybe in the last couple of years.”

Els, who moved to nearby Jupiter a year ago, has had some luck in South Florida already. In addition to the Doral win, his 2008 Honda Classic title is his lone victory on the PGA Tour since 2004. The home-cooking thing might be key to his steady start to 2010, which includes three top 12 finishes in four stroke-play starts. Els promised his wife this year that he would play less often overseas and concentrate on the U.S. tour. He skipped the Middle East portion of the European Tour schedule, in fact.

“I felt a bit more grounded,” he said.

That’s not a joke about his past air travel, which would make most mortals wince.

“[My schedule's] a little bit more of what I want to do,” he said, “and not what everybody else wants me to do.”

He’s doing his own thing on the instructional front, too. He worked for years with David Leadbetter, then switched to Butch Harmon two years ago. But midway through 2009, he stopped working with the latter. So after last week’s disappointment, he had to diagnose his own swing ailments.

He moved the ball fractionally back in his own stance.

“Basically, when I went to go see Butch two years ago, I was in the same situation,” Els said. “Ball position out of whack, my swing all over the place. So it was actually kind of fun to work it out myself. After playing professional golf now for 20 years, you know, you should kind of figure your own swing out by now.”

On the mojo front, those swing flaws are habits he would love to break. Sometimes it’s the smallest things.

“I guess,” he laughed, “we are not that different from you guys.”

Knock on wood.

Who: Thoroughbreds – Super Saver, Odysseus, Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Dublin, Caracortado
What: Horse racing betting tips – The Tampa Bay Derby, The Rebel, The San Felipe
Where: Tampa Bay Downs, Oaklawn Park, Santa Anita
When: Saturday, March 13th

Last year’s top 2-year olds, like Super Saver, Noble’s Promise and Lookin At Lucky will make their 2010 debuts on Saturday. They’ll face emerging talents such as Uptowncharlybrown, Odysseus, Cardiff Giant, American Lion, Sidney’s Candy and Dave in Dixie in what promises to be a memorable day on the 2010 Kentucky Derby trail. Let’s take a brief look at The Tampa Bay Derby, The Rebel and The San Felipe, and try to identify the winners.

A few weeks ago, I tried to beat the Todd Pletcher-trained Rule with Uptowncharlybrown in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. My thinking was that the speedy Rule was coming off a layoff and ‘Charly had sharp recent form over the somewhat quirky Tampa Bay Downs surface. Rule won and Charly finished a respectable third. I haven’t learned my lesson, because I’m picking Odysseus Saturday to defeat the highly-regarded front-runner Super Saver, who, like Rule, is making his first start of the year. Super Saver probably won’t encounter much pressure on the front end, but I’m guessing that Odysseus will reel him in late at overlaid odds of around 3-1.

The field for The Rebel is of extremely high quality, with a trio of Grade 1 winners in Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise and Dublin. Dublin appears to be the “wise guy” horse, as his form has risen considerably since he underwent minor throat surgery prior to his 3YO debut. He encountered several difficulties in that race, but kept coming to miss by less than a length. Still, he has yet to win a 2-turn race, so I’m taking a stand against. Noble’s Promise has lost twice to 2YO champ Lookin At Lucky by a combined margin of 1 ? lengths. Nether horse has raced on dirt, but Noble’s Promise has trained on it all his life, so I’m giving him the edge. I’ll bet him to win at odds of 2-1 or better.

Caracortado (Scarface in English) will be tough to beat in The San Felipe. He’s 5-for-5 lifetime with a pair of wins at the track and distance. His “stalk and pounce” style usually leads to a good trip, and journeyman jockey Paul Atkinson has ridden him flawlessly. It’s refreshing to see that the connections are sticking with Atkinson, and not opting for a more high-profile rider (as is the case with Dublin). Sidney’s Candy will take the field a long way on the front end, and American Lion as well as the late-running Dave in Dixie will make their presence felt, but in the end, the favored Caracortado should prevail.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

The Kentucky Derby is seven weeks away, but horseplayers will get a sneak peek at three of its highest-profile candidates when Lookin At Lucky, the champion 2-year-old of 2009, and Grade 1 winners Dublin and Nobles Promise meet Saturday in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.

The trio makes for perhaps the strongest Derby prep so far this season. The $300,000 Rebel is the final local prep for the Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby and drew a field of seven. Others set to start in the 1 1/16-mile race are Uh Oh Bango, who is making his first start since finishing second to top Kentucky Derby prospect Rule in the Grade 3, $750,000 Delta Jackpot in December; Cardiff Giant and Pleasant Storm, who exit the Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest at Oaklawn in February; and Royal Express, a front-running sprint stakes winner who invades from Fair Grounds.

Lookin At Lucky is the first 2-year-old champion to run at Oaklawn as a 3-year-old since Answer Lively in 1999. The Rebel is the starting point to his season, and it will mark his first race outside of Southern California, his first start on dirt, and his first out in blinkers.

This is going to be an experimental race, said Bob Baffert, who trains Lookin At Lucky for Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman. Im only allowed one experimental race, and its got to be right now. Well see how he handles the dirt and the ship. Theres a lot of things involved. Well find out a lot about him.

Lookin At Lucky won 5 of 6 starts during his championship season, which began last July with a maiden special weight win at Hollywood Park. He proceeded to take the Grade 2 Best Pal, the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, and the Grade 1 Norfolk. That record made Lookin At Lucky the favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and he missed by a head after breaking from post 13.

Lookin At Lucky raced one more time following that start and was a three-quarter-length winner over Nobles Promise in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity on Dec. 19 at Hollywood Park.

He doesnt need a lot, this horse, Baffert said. He stays pretty fit.

This race will help him a lot.

Garrett Gomez has the mount from post 2.

Lookin At Lucky closed as the 9-1 second choice among individual interests behind Eskendereya in last weekends Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool. Dublin, who was third choice at 10-1, will bring the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure into the Rebel. He earned a 96 last month for his runner-up finish to Conveyance in the Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest Stakes.

Dublin stumbled at the start and found himself 12 lengths back, but put in a strong bid in the one-mile race, which ended at the sixteenth pole, as do all one-mile races at Oaklawn.

That was an unbelievable run from the half-mile pole to the wire, especially on a short stretch, where youve got a 230- or 240-yard stretch, said D. Wayne Lukas, who trains Dublin for Robert Baker and William Mack.

The race was Dublins first start of the year, and his first following minor throat surgery. The winner of last years Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga, he is the top 3-year-old based at Oaklawn. Lukas said he likes how the horse is coming up to his second start of 2010.

I do think hell move forward, said Lukas, who has won the Kentucky Derby four times.

Hes actually a little ahead of where I think he would be normally. Im probably more comfortable with him in early March than Ive been with any of my Derby horses, just because of the combination of his mental state, the way hes training, his natural ability.

Corey Nakatani will ride from post 7.

Nobles Promise, winner of last years Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, is out to turn the tables on Lookin At Lucky after finishing second following a wide trip in the CashCall, his most recent race.

Hes fit; he had a nice foundation as a 2-year-old, said Ken McPeek, who trains Nobles Promise. We rested him, gave him a month off, nothing more than a little time to fill out, and he did that.

I dont think this is going to be his best race for us. It should be a good race but his next race and race after that will be his better races.

Robby Albarado has the mount.

This Saturday, in the 25 minutes it takes to put on two races from paddock to finish line, Charles Cella will get the answer hes been looking for.

Make that less of an answer and more of a reassurance; a guarantee that, provided these races go off without a hitch, his carefully orchestrated plan to bring two champions together in the Apple Blossom Invitational could continue to develop.
Maybe.
Unless youve been out tramping the jungle or hiding under a rock somewhere, youre probably aware that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, arguably the best thoroughbreds of their time, might face off in an April 9 meeting at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. Youre probably also aware that track president Cella has boosted the 1 1/8-mile Apple Blossoms purse to $5 million should both appear.

For months leading up to their March 13 prep races, there has been talk about how the meeting of these two horses would be good for racing. But then, talk is always about what would be good for racing, what racing really needs — the latest and greatest perfect scenario that will bolster a flagging fan base, attract new revenue and restore the all-but-vanished prominence the game once enjoyed.

These schemes generally involve a yearning for legends like Seabiscuit and Secretariat and the ridiculously reliable tendencies of the runners human connections to botch things up. This in turn results in the realization that such legendary horses have pretty much ceased to exist because the sportsmen of yesterday are quickly becoming the opportunists of tomorrow. And the cycle continues.

This seasons good-for-racing plan involving 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and champion older mare Zenyatta — and their larger-than-life owners, Jess Jackson and Jerry Moss — will take the next step toward actuality when the two start for the first time this year — in two events in different parts of the country. You can consider these races — the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies at 6:15 p.m. ET and the $250,000 Santa Margarita Handicap at 6:40 p.m. ET — as individual trial runs gearing toward the meeting everyone hopes to see. In Louisiana, Rachel Alexandra must make her first start of the season and exit in safe and solid condition. In California, Zenyatta must do the same.

Zenyattas most recent accomplishment was becoming the first female runner to win the Breeders Cup Classic on Nov. 7, while Rachel Alexandras was her historic Woodward score over older males Sept. 5. Each buildup to their 2010 prep races has been characteristic of the runners individual camps: Zenyattas team, already pointing toward the Apple Blossom (which she won in 2008), has provided nothing but praise for their unbeaten runner, while Rachels connections have approached with their signature caution.

Jackson — the California wine mogul who purchased Rachel Alexandra last year after she won the Kentucky Oaks by more than 20 lengths — told The New York Times that his filly is at about 85 percent of where she should be going into her season debut. Meanwhile, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, who rides Zenyatta for AM Records icon Moss, said of his mount, I know it sounds funny, but I really think shes getting better.

Rachels connections have every right to be concerned over the 4-year-old fillys level of fitness going into the 1 1/16-mile New Orleans Ladies. Throughout a training regimen hampered by foul weather in New Orleans, she has turned in seven breezes over little more than a one-month period (Jan 31-March 8). Six-year-old Zenyatta has breezed 10 times in four months (Dec. 7-March 5), but her return to the races could pose a problem of its own: As the 127-pound highweight in a field of seven other runners, she spots her competition 12-19 pounds in the 1 1/8-mile test with her 14-for-14 record on the line.

Thats quite a bit of weight to start out the year, Smith said. But fortunately for us, shes a big mare and she carries the weight very well. So hopefully it wont bother her too much.

Running for second

Theyll be out to tackle the champions, but the trainers of runners who will take on the two great race mares would also be satisfied to wind up second in either of the races. In Santa Anitas Grade 1 event, eight other horses have been entered to take on Zenyatta. In Fair Grounds inaugural running of the New Orleans Ladies, only four will face Rachel Alexandra.

We dont have any grand illusions that we have a much better horse or anything, said Dallas Stewart, who will send out the 6-year-old mare Unforgotten at Fair Grounds.

Stewarts Macho Again nearly passed Rachel Alexandra last summer in the Woodward, getting beat by a nose while carrying 126 pounds to Rachels 118. If something happens where she doesnt run very well, then its a wide-open race, he said.

Stewart has watched the bay daughter of Medaglia dOro training at Fair Grounds, where she put in her final preparations for Saturdays race March 8.

She looks to be very fresh, and her last work was just beautiful, he remarked. Im sure theyre thinking theyve got a ways to go with her, conditioning-wise, but in the grand scheme of things this is probably a good place to bring her back. She looks very good to me, like shes ready to do some running. Were taking the chance that were probably going to be fighting it off for second, so well just get in the gates with her and see how it goes.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has two — Dance to My Tune and Pretty Katherine — entered in the Santa Margarita. Hed be happy to add place or show to the rsum of either.

I dont think anybodys expecting to beat her, he said. I guess that could happen, but what people are looking for in this race is the Grade 1 placing. Aside from Zenyatta, there are a lot of other horses in the race that are pretty much equal, and thats why were all in there. Dance to My Tune has some speed, she might be the only speed in the race, and Pretty Katherine is a very well-bred filly. If she ever got a Grade 1 placing shed become much more valuable, so thats why were there.

Hollendorfer trains at Santa Anita, while trainer John Shirreffs is based at Hollywood Park with Zenyatta.

I havent seen her on the track, but I did hear Mike Smith say she had a sensational work the other day, and he usually doesnt say much, Hollendorfer said. Everybody expects her to run like she always does, and thats the hope. No matter if youre training Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra or not, you hope to have the Apple Blossom race come off because the fans want to see it and itll provide a lot of interest for our business.

That, of course, is the focus. Two champions. Two legends. Two sets of passionate fans. One race.

Its what makes us proud, when great horses go out and run against each other, Hollendorfer said.

This Saturday could bring fans one step closer to seeing whether they actually will.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.

World No. 3 Phil Mickelson is again playing around with the club composition in his bag, and on Thursday at the CA Championship, he went with a pair of drivers in his arsenal.

“If I could hit one,” he cracked off the air to the Golf Channel, “I wouldn’t need two.” When he informed Butch Harmon of the game plan before the round, his noted swing coach was ready with the barb.

“Well, you won the Masters with two drivers in the bag,” Harmon said. “Which is way better than drivers.”

That’s a reference to Mickelson’s admittedly crazy tactic at the 2008 U.S. Open, when he ditched the big stick completely. Of course, Mickelson knew exactly what Harmon was talking about.

“I’m not going to tell you what he said [in response],” Harmon laughed. “But it started with an ‘F.’”

With the Masters dead ahead and Mickelson sort of meandering around in a competitive haze, the letter grade for his season thus far has been, at best, a charitable “C.”

Phil Mickelson gets some guidance from Bones Mackay during the blustery opening round at Doral. (AP) Mickelson, struggling all year with his putter, finally pieced together his best day of the season on the greens but had to grind out a 1-under 71 under blustery conditions at the Doral Golf Resort & Spa.

There was a two-club wind blowing most of the day, and that’s not a crack about his double-driver scheme. Even with the two howitzers, he hit three of 14 fairways. Maybe he could add a driver that goes straight?

Just kidding, sort of. One driver was set up to hit soaring bombs, the other to hit low bullets. At times, he did exactly that, like when he hit a 377-yard missile off the 14th tee that left him a 65-yard half wedge to the green. Had the shot had any more hang time, he would have needed FAA clearance from nearby Miami International.

The cracks about his club selection aside, the most notable development for Mickelson was that a few putts actually started to find the plastic cup. After making everything last fall after starting to work with short-game whiz and two-time major winner Dave Stockton, the start to 2010 has been ice cold, and Mickelson for the first time in four years didn’t muster a win in his first four starts of the season. He finally figured out that his alignment was off.

“I used some lasers and things to train my eyes and get my alignment proper and all of the stuff Stockton and I were working on started to kick in,” he said.

His season needs a kick in the pants, though there have been extenuating circumstances. Last week, Mickelson and his wife, Amy, were again in Houston, where she had more treatment for the breast cancer that was diagnosed 10 months ago.

He arrived in Miami late Wednesday and didn’t ge he was already on the greens at Doral, working with Harmon, trying to get caught up.

Since he has failed to contend in any of his first four starts, Mickelson said he was going to add the Arnold Palmer Invitational to his playing schedule in two weeks to get more at-bats, if you will, before the season’s first major starts April 8.

“So I’ll play Bay Hill, Houston and the Masters and I feel like that will give me a chance to be more competitively ready heading in,” he said.

Since he went winless in 2003, this season marks his second-longest drought at the beginning of the season for Mickelson, a notorious West Coast dynamo. In five of those six years, he never required more than four starts to hoist his first trophy of the season.

Deep breath.

After more than two decades of watching him play in tour events, the mercurial nature of Mickelson’s performances has stopped being a huge surprise. But this was a year in which the window of opportunity not only was open, but the garage door was, too.

Plus, he had the car keys in his hand.

With nemesis Tiger Woods on the shelf indefinitely, Mickelson had a chance with a fast start to not only become the face of a tour that badly needed an embraceable figurehead, but to fill in the huge gaps in his professional resume. Though Lefty is a mortal lock to be inducted into the World Golf Hall of Fame in 2011, he has never topped the world ranking, finished the season first in earnings, won the tour Player of the Year award or posted the lowest seasonal scoring average. That foursome represents a slam that’s not so grand.

Then there’s the chilly start to this season amid the medical uncertainties back home.

Then again, the last time Lefty didn’t win in his first four starts was in 2006, when he won his eighth and ninth starts in consecutive weeks in Atlanta and at the Masters … using two drivers at the latter.

So, even though we might have heard the joke before, there’s some silly symmetry going on here. Maybe, like in 2006, the last laugh will be on us.

                Things heat up this weekend with three 8 and a half furlongs preps, the Rebel at Oaklawn, the San Felipe at Santa Anita and the Tampa Bay Derby.
In the last few years, the Rebel has been the most potent of the three as far as the Derby is concerned as the sensational Smarty Jones and one of the best ever, Curlin, won the Oaklawn fixture.
Tampa Bay got some respect 3 years ago when Street Sense used it as a prep for Kentucky Derby success and while the San Felipe has had an impact on the Derby, it was generally years ago.
A decade ago Fusaichi Pegasus used the Felipe as a prelude to Derby glory but before that you had to go back to Sunday Silence’s success in 1989 and than another over decade leap back to the future before finding Affirmed that posted the San Felipe/Kentucky Derby double.
To get a perspective on what to expect this year know that in the 2009 Tampa Bay Derby Musket Man parlayed a third in the Sam Davis to a 5-1 upset even though the trip was troubled. He went on to complete the trifecta in Mine That Bird’s Kentucky Derby score.
Last year in the San Felipe Pioneerof the Nile beat 5 horses as the prohibitive chalk, and eventually ran a game second in May to Mine That Bird.
The Rebel without a cause last year was Win Willy, who took the stepping-stone at Oaklawn at a shocking 56-1 to post a 102 Beyer figure when he came from dead last and 16 back.
As we move on to California, the king and one to beat in the San Felipe is Caracortado, the unbeaten gelding fresh from a Grade 2 win who has trained great for this event. The reformed claimer is already a Cinderella story and will take some beating.
Dave in Dixie and American Lion, who were second and third behind Caracortado in the Robert Lewis Stakes, will likely fight it out for minor prizes again.
Sidney’s Candy, the winner of the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes, is bred to run all day long and will be on his high horse early.
Tiz Chrome was a recent fourth while Stephen’s Got Hope, who was scratched from a maiden race at Santa Anita recently, is not so polished, primed to run hard but he does appear overmatched.
Johnny Yuma was a rebel and Bob Baffert hopes to follow in his footsteps. The trainer had options with champion Lookin at Lucky but the colt will make his conventional track debut at Oaklawn with first-time blinkers. Baffert the last 5 years is 15% with first-time blinkers performers.
Only one beat for this guy and he was left with just too much to do in the BC Juvenile. His connections have always been high on him and he will be tough to beat but two questions are evident, the surface and the fact he will be undervalued.
Dublin, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, will be looking for revenge in the Rebel. Lukas, of course, the former basketball coach, trained 4 Kentucky Derby winners, 5 Preakness heroes and 4 Belmont winners.
Dublin, a son of Afleet Alex out of a Storm Bird mare, has the style that screams Classics. He posted a career best 96 Beyer when getting to the winner of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes recently and has a right to mature with grace.
Dublin’s dam not only won multiple Graded races and over $700,000, she is kin to another Grade 1 winner and near $800,000 earner Missy’s Mirage.
Throat surgery has helped this guy and if he can stay healthy those pearly whites of D. Wayne could be smiling in May.
Noble’s Promise has the revenge motive as he will try to even the score with Lucky after losing his 2009 finale. Consistent and improving, he has trained well at Gulfstream for his Oaklawn debut and should be a handful.
Cardiff Giant got nailed for second in his last race and should improve while Up Oh Bango has run well in all 5 starts as he makes the Oaklawn debut.
The forecast for Pleasant Storm is turbulent going after a dull try last out.
The forgotten child in Florida racing is Tampa Bay Downs but they hit the limelight this weekend. Elementary my dear Watson and that could be the crying call for Schoolyard Dreams in the Tampa Bay Derby. He exited a double live debut, ran very well in the Sam Davis last month considering he needed the race. He has trained fast for this race and has every right to adore the Classic distance.
Comic strip fans will be all over Uptowncharlybrown, who was getting to the winner late in his first try going long. Brilliant is his first two starts, the runner will be getting the acid test and is dependent on clear sailing and a hot pace.
Tuvia’s Force will be coming late. He only has the one score but we have not yet seen the best of this guy while Super Saver carries the hopes of Todd Pletcher and the speedball will be a player. He proved his class winning a Grade 2 to end his juvenile season and will be on the muscle every step of the way.
Try to watch these preps with an eye toward which runners still have room to grow and ones which we can still project an upside to in May.

The thing that makes the Kentucky Derby a puzzle wrapped up in an enigma is that most of these horses will be trying to go a furlong farther than they ever had in their career. You don’t want a horse to peak at 2 if you want to win the Derby. You don’t want him to peak in March either. You want him just to be scratching the surface of his talent in Louisville while leaving enough in the tank to continue on the trail.

Before we get into what has produced recent Derby success, a review of last week’s preps are in order.

In the Gotham at the Big A Awesome Act overcame a traffic jam to prove the prompt 5-2 choice while winning his first race on dirt in his career. Between horses early, he rallied 4 wide and held sway under a hand ride. He also has a right to get the classic trip as his dam won thrice including a mile and a quarter turf fray in Europe.

The 98 Beyer Awesome posted paled in comparison to the figure I Want Revenge rang up in 2009. That son of Stephen Got Even recorded a 113 Gotham number, parlayed to a 103 figure winning the Wood and was the Kentucky Derby chalk before he had to scratch very late.

Act’s trainer, Jeremy Nosada, had this to say: Nosada: “I believed in this horse today. It was a good, solid race, but there were no graded stakes winners. It’s the first hurdle out of the way, so the dream lives on.”

Alphie’s Bet was not quite as impressive taking the Sham at Santa Anita. Trained by Alexis Barba, who learned her craft under the 1981 Kentucky Derby winning trainer Eddie Gregson, has been very patient with her star and has a runner that figures to get better with more distance. The bad news is he only posted a 86 Sham Beyer.

Paddy O’Prado did something rare last weekend: he broke his maiden in a 9-furlong Grade 3 stakes, the Palm Beach at Gulfstream on turf. He showed very good speed sitting just off a 1:10 and change pace while recording a 93 Beyer.

Paddy is another that figures to be able to run all day. His sire El Prado was a champion that sired BC Mile winner Artie Schiller, champ Kitten’s Joy and Pacific Classic hero Borrego. His dam was a Grade 2 winner going a mile and she was kin to a runner that was only beaten a half going 9 furlongs.

With those facts in mind, lets examine some historical trends that have produced Kentucky Derby winners.

Last season a son of Birdstone put a new definition to giving them ‘the bird’ as Mine That Bird, off two losses at Sunland Park, the last with an 80 Beyer, improved 25 Beyer digits to win the Derby going away by almost 7 lengths with a 105 figure.

Two years ago proved some trends could be thrown right out the window. Big Brown was so lightly raced as he came into the Derby 3 for 3 career and fresh from a 106 Beyer in the Florida Derby. He showed a new wrinkle in the Derby coming from sixth for his highest career Beyer of 109.

In 2007 Street Sense became the first runner that won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was able to parlay the win to a Kentucky Derby success. He had only 2 preps in 2007, a win and a loss both by a nose the last prior to the first Saturday in May in a controversial slow-paced race on the Polytrack at Keeneland. 

The ever-gallant Barbaro became the first horse in 50 years to win off a 5-week vacation but his trainer, Michael Matz, knew his horse and he was determined not to squeeze the lemon dry.

Giacomo had only won a maiden race before his Derby coming out party but he has only won once since and that was by a head at 9-2 against only 6 rivals.

The fact 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones made it to the races at all is a tale of a survivor. Early in his career while schooling at Philly Park, the horse reared in the starting gate. He hit his head hard, fractured his skull, broke bones near the left eye, was lucky to keep the eye and had to spend weeks in an equine hospital. But he did all the laughing to the bank. And despite the posturing of Smarty’s connections about racing him as a 4-year-old after his length beat in the Belmont Stakes, he was forced to hang up the racing shoes.

In 2003 Funny Cide became the first New York bred to win and the first gelding to succeed since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.

In War Emblem’s case, he was a horse that just got good in a hurry. He had won 4 of his first 7 starts and was coming off a 112 Beyer before taking the Derby in rare wire-to-wire fashion.

Monarchos was educated in his 2 losses as a juvenile, was unbeaten at 3 before losing in the Wood Memorial then rebounded at Churchill when the money was down.

Fusiachi Pegasus was a neck away from being unbeaten going into the Derby after winning 4 straight including the Wood and the way he overcame post 15 and weaved his way through traffic was truly poetry in motion under Gary Stevens.

The last winner of the 1990s was an old-school hero. Charismatic was battle-scarred, a former claimer and he entered the Derby off 13 races and he only finished first in one of those. Yet his seasoning carried the day and he came within a length and a half of taking the Triple Crown.

How tough can it be to sniff out a Derby winner? Just check out the winning mutuels of late. Mine That Bird blew up the tote at 50-1, logical speedball Big Brown still paid a fat 2-1 while Street Sense popped at 9-2.

Barbaro now looks like a bargain at 6-1. Giacomo was 50-1, Smarty Jones hit at 4-1, Funny Cide in 2003 was over 12-1, War Emblem in 2002 hit at 20-1, Monarchos the year before popped at 10 and a half to one, in 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus scored for the chalk eaters and Charismatic blew up the board at 31-1.

When post time comes around don’t be so fast to throw history out the window but still highly concentrate on the way the race figures to set up pace-wise, visualize the trip of each entrant, and then pray to the racing gods to get lucky.

Henry de Bromhead tried to flee his calling with no success. Office walls are prison cells to the man who might have qualified as an accountant. And when he sought the happy medium of Tattersalls, the Newmarket auctioneers, he lasted only three months.

There was nothing for it. De Bromhead returned to Coolmore Stud, where his equine odyssey first started, and from where, aged 28, he would succeed his father on the familys Waterford farm. Only then did he realise he had been marking time all along. I was definitely trying to get away from training in some respects. Dad had had some really bad years. Id seen how hard it was, he said.

To meet de Bromhead is to encounter a man of old values in contemporary clothes. Yet it is easy to glean, from asides in conversation, that he was a late developer. His confidence did not match his potential, and he may have taken longer than most to recognise the virtues of hard work.

The remedy? Two years in Sir Mark Prescotts Newmarket boot camp, although de Bromheads making can be traced to an unexpected call he fielded from Alan Potts in December 2005. An English owner relatively new to the game, Potts wanted to buy a horse – only to be told on arriving in Ireland that the one he liked had developed tendon trouble.

Undaunted, Potts bought two others from de Bromhead who, three months later, had to tell him that one was dead and the other had fractured its knee. That should have been that, yet Potts quickly returned to Ireland to buy one or two more. He ended up with 13, one of which was Sizing Europe, a leading contender for the Irish Independent Arkle Chase at Cheltenham on Tuesday who could be joined by four other stablemates at the Festival.

De Bromhead doesnt say it, but Potts, a blunt Yorkshireman, saw sincerity in the young trainer. He made his fortune by an intuitive judgment of others, who would subsequently vindicate him. In de Bromheads case Potts recognised a man who simply needed to be shown the way forward.

Alan is very much behind so much of what I do now, de Bromhead said. He kicked my arse a bit; he kept telling me that whatever I did, I had to do it right. He gave me confidence to invest in the yard and build up the business.

Potts is not alone. Last season was a washout for de Bromhead, leaving him worried that the harsh economic climate would reduce his string. Instead his numbers rose to capacity at his 45-box stable. And a thorough review of his daily routine has effected a dramatic transformation in fortunes. This season he passed his previous-best haul of winners by mid-December.

Since de Bromhead took over Knockeen ten years ago he has built numerous boxes and two new gallops, together with an equine hydrotherapy unit. He must now take the place to the next level and in Sizing Europe may have the horse to transport him.

It would be third time lucky. Two years ago Sizing Europe started favourite for the Champion Hurdle and looked like winning until, full of running two out, he damaged a bone in his spine. Worse would follow 12 months later. The horse was so badly affected by transit fever en route to Cheltenham that vets detained him for five days before they allowed him home.

Sizing Europe has since enjoyed a year of robust health. The only caveat within his record of four wins from as many starts this season is that Captain Cee Bee apparently had his measure when he fell at Leopardstown in December. Whatever would have happened, my horse definitely felt that race, de Bromhead said. I think he needed to be freshened up, which is why he hasnt run since.

More than anything, de Bromhead wants Sizing Europe to show his mettle this time round. He said: The horse has had his knocks. Id say that hes just unfortunate, rather than injury-prone, and hes absolutely bouncing now. Lets hope we see it at Cheltenham.

Sam Thomas was airlifted to hospital yesterday after a horrifying schooling fall at the Somerset yard of Paul Nicholls, the champion trainer. The jockey, cursed by drama and dismay since his Gold Cup victory two years ago, suffered a cracked vertebra and will miss the Cheltenham Festival.

This latest crushing setback for Thomas came after he had driven to Ditcheat when Nicholls offered him the ride on Woolcombe Folly in the Arkle Trophy on Tuesday. He was upsides Tony McCoy, on Chapoturgeon, when the fall occurred at the last of the schooling fences.

Nicholls said: It was a frightening incident, quite horrific. We thought Sam was seriously hurt and knew we shouldnt move him, so we called the air ambulance and it was with us in six minutes, which was a tremendous effort. They took Sam to Bath Royal United Hospital and they have been doing tests and scans during the day.

The trainer was so distressed that he cancelled plans to attend a Gold Cup lunch in London. Late yesterday, he managed to speak to Thomas personally. They let me have a quick word. He was pretty groggy but amazingly positive, Nicholls said.

It was Tom George, Thomass retaining trainer, who issued categorical news yesterday evening. I havent spoken to Sam directly, but Ive spoken to his father who is with him and he will not be riding at Cheltenham next week, George said. He has suffered a crack to a vertebra high up in his neck, but it is not as bad as first feared and he is able to walk, talk and move his hands and feet.

Its obviously disappointing that he will miss Cheltenham, but the news is largely positive and his injuries will heal with time.

Thomass Cheltenham rides had included Tricky Trickster for Nicholls, in the Gold Cup, and Tell Massini, for George, in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle.

Little has gone right for Thomas since a glorious season ended with Gold Cup triumph on Denman. Since losing his job as second jockey to Nicholls, he has missed a number of big days through injury and suspension, but this latest setback will bring most sympathy.

McCoy, who has taken over on Denman, spoke for all his riding colleagues. Sams had no luck recently and we all wish him well, he said. It was a bad fall and I heard something snap.

The champion jockey aims to ride at his lowest weight for almost two years tomorrow. Qaspal, trained by Philip Hobbs, is the new favourite for the Paddy Power Imperial Cup, displacing Hunterview, who failed to make the cut. McCoy said: Hes got 10st 3lb and Im doing my best to get down to it.